Asset/Liability Management

HEAR WHAT THE S&B TEAM HAS TO SAY

Listen in as our analysts discuss an array of topics that may be affecting your institution, including recent market movements and industry-wide commentary. These briefings can serve as educational tools for both boards and management.

Watch the Latest Briefing

September 19, 2017 — This week, Jamie Sumner, chief analysis, reviews several releases from last week including the inflation gauges of the producer price index and consumer price index. While the producer price index came in below the consensus, the consumer price index’s core reading came in at consensus with a reading of 0.2% month over month change. However, Hurricane Harvey did have an impact on the CPI results in August. Both inflation indices continue to point to an inflation level below the Fed’s 2% target. Additionally, retail sales came in at a disappointing -0.2% for August while the July number was revised down to 0.3% from 0.6%. Lastly, industrial production came in at -0.9% as a result of Hurricane Harvey. Putting these, and other releases, all together resulted in the GDPNow falling to 2.2% as a forecast for the 3Q 2017 GDP.
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RECENT BRIEFINGS

September 12, 2017


September 12, 2017 — This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the positive second estimate of the 2Q GDP along with the employment situation report. While the 2Q GDP was revised up to 3%, the employment report showed the number of jobs created in August 2017 falling to 156,000 and the unemployment rate increasing to 4.4% from 4.3% in July. Additionally, the employment situation report showed average hourly earnings up 2.5% from August 2016 which remains below the 3% historical average.   
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September 5, 2017


September 5, 2017 — This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the positive second estimate of the 2Q GDP along with the employment situation report. While the 2Q GDP was revised up to 3%, the employment report showed the number of jobs created in August 2017 falling to 156,000 and the unemployment rate increasing to 4.4% from 4.3% in July. Additionally, the employment situation report showed average hourly earnings up 2.5% from August 2016 which remains below the 3% historical average.   
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August 29, 2017


August 29, 2017 — This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, discusses the historical quarterly growth rates of GDP and highlights the significant reduction in GDP growth post-2008 recession. Looking to the 3Q2017 GDP, the GDPNow forecast is projecting a growth rate of 3.4%. However, this forecast tends to be rather volatile and inflated in its early releases. Looking to GDP growth expectations for 2017 and 2018 the IMF and the FOMC continued to project growth rates in the low 2%. The continued sluggish growth rates and the geopolitical issues we are facing has kept the long end of the curve suppressed and that is expected to continue.   
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August 22, 2017


This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews a sampling of economic releases from last week (week of August 14th). Most releases came in at or above consensus and are suggesting a good start to the 3Q numbers. However, there are still signs of low inflation and a continued period of low interest rates coupled with a narrowing yield curve.   
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August 15, 2017


This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews how the U.S. Treasury curve has changed since the Fed started its tightening in December 2015 and then looks at various projections of how the curve might move over the next year…which all point to a continual narrowing of the slope of the curve. Moving onto the Fed Funds rate, we review the current implied probabilities of future rate hikes. Lastly, we cover the current national average CD curve and the most recent information from Bankrate.com.   
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August 8, 2017


This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the 2Q 2017 results of the community bank benchmark group. Overall, returns have increased during the 2Q lead by an increase in net interest margin and an improvement in net overhead. However, the upward trend in the level of cash-type deposits has begun to level out which could result in an increase in cost of funds if depositors appetite turn more toward time deposits. As for the balance sheet, loan growth continues to outpace asset growth resulting in higher loan to asset ratios. Lastly, the benchmark’s S&B Total Risk Index median score of was little changed over the past year. This indicates little change in the overall risk for the benchmark group.   
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August 1, 2017


This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, covers the Fed statement from last week’s FOMC meeting. While the Fed did not raise rates their mentioning of implementing the balance sheet normalization program “relatively soon” likely points to a September start point especially given the 2Q 2017 GDP coming in at 2.6% for the advance estimate.   
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July 25, 2017


This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the Housing Market Index which came in at 64 down from its June reading of 66 and below consensus of 68. Furthermore, Jamie reviews the housing permits and starts for June which both showed month-over-month improvements. However, the 2Q2017 totals are below that of the 1Q2017. Lastly, the Leading Economic Index is reviewed noting the continued upward trend in the year-over-year changes.   
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July 18, 2017


This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews several releases from last week including the Small Business Optimism Index, Producer Price Index, Business Inflation Expectations Index, CPI and Retail Sales. Overall, last week's releases resulted in a reduction in the GDPNow forecast to 2.4%.   
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July 7, 2017


This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the June 2017 Employment Situation report. In June we had 222 thousand jobs created but a much larger influx into the labor force which resulted in an increase in the unemployment rate of 0.1% to 4.4%. Additionally, average hourly earnings increased 2.5% y/y coming in below consensus.   
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