Asset/Liability Management

Briefings Archive

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October 2017
October 31, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the Q3 2017 GDP release. Overall, the advance estimate of the 3Q GDP came in higher than expectations at 3% but just under the 2Q GDP growth rate of 3.1%. The 3Q growth rate was primarily driven by the replenishment of inventories, business equipment investments, contraction in imports, and expenditures on motor vehicles and parts. Play Download Download
October 24, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, explores the topic of automation in retail industries and the impact on the labor force. Overall, retailers employ about 10% of the U.S. labor force so the automation of the sales process could have a rather significant impact on the U.S. jobs market. As for the banking industry, we have seen some level of automation over the past decade and there will likely be continued advancements in technologies that will streamline the deposit and lending process. Play Download Download
October 17, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the inflation numbers for September and retail sales. Overall, inflation remains to be soft and unsupportive of a continued increase in the fed funds rate as projected by the FOMC’s dot plot. Retail sales were up 1.6% in September. However, the growth was primarily related to the aftermath of this year’s hurricanes. With last week’s releases the GDP Now forecast for the 3Q 2017 GDP was increased to 2.7%. Play Download Download
October 10, 2017 The week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the September Job report and the residential real estate numbers that have come out over the past several weeks. Play Download Download
October 3, 2017 The week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews several of the economic releases from last week including the third estimate of the 2Q 2017 GDP, personal income and outlays, durable goods orders and inventories. Overall there was a positive trend in the releases last week which would support a solid 3Q GDP. Play Download Download
September 2017
September 26, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the FOMC’s post-meeting statement as well as the dot plot along with their new set of projections. Once again, the fed holds the target rate at the 1-1.25 range. However, their dot plot suggests they anticipate one more rate hike this year. This is important to keep in mind as you begin your budgeting for 2018 as an additional rate hike this year could potentially trigger a need to increase your deposit pricing. As for their projections, we saw minor changes from their June 2017 projections…low economic growth rates, leveling off of the unemployment rate and below targeted inflation. Play Download Download
September 19, 2017 This week, Jamie Sumner, chief analysis, reviews several releases from last week including the inflation gauges of the producer price index and consumer price index. While the producer price index came in below the consensus, the consumer price index’s core reading came in at consensus with a reading of 0.2% month over month change. However, Hurricane Harvey did have an impact on the CPI results in August. Both inflation indices continue to point to an inflation level below the Fed’s 2% target. Additionally, retail sales came in at a disappointing -0.2% for August while the July number was revised down to 0.3% from 0.6%. Lastly, industrial production came in at -0.9% as a result of Hurricane Harvey. Putting these, and other releases, all together resulted in the GDPNow falling to 2.2% as a forecast for the 3Q 2017 GDP. Play Download Download
September 12, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the positive second estimate of the 2Q GDP along with the employment situation report. While the 2Q GDP was revised up to 3%, the employment report showed the number of jobs created in August 2017 falling to 156,000 and the unemployment rate increasing to 4.4% from 4.3% in July. Additionally, the employment situation report showed average hourly earnings up 2.5% from August 2016 which remains below the 3% historical average. Play Download Download
September 5, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the positive second estimate of the 2Q GDP along with the employment situation report. While the 2Q GDP was revised up to 3%, the employment report showed the number of jobs created in August 2017 falling to 156,000 and the unemployment rate increasing to 4.4% from 4.3% in July. Additionally, the employment situation report showed average hourly earnings up 2.5% from August 2016 which remains below the 3% historical average. Play Download Download
August 2017
August 29, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, discusses the historical quarterly growth rates of GDP and highlights the significant reduction in GDP growth post-2008 recession. Looking to the 3Q2017 GDP, the GDPNow forecast is projecting a growth rate of 3.4%. However, this forecast tends to be rather volatile and inflated in its early releases. Looking to GDP growth expectations for 2017 and 2018 the IMF and the FOMC continued to project growth rates in the low 2%. The continued sluggish growth rates and the geopolitical issues we are facing has kept the long end of the curve suppressed and that is expected to continue. Play Download Download
August 22, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews a sampling of economic releases from last week (week of August 14th). Most releases came in at or above consensus and are suggesting a good start to the 3Q numbers. However, there are still signs of low inflation and a continued period of low interest rates coupled with a narrowing yield curve. Play Download Download
August 15, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews how the U.S. Treasury curve has changed since the Fed started its tightening in December 2015 and then looks at various projections of how the curve might move over the next year…which all point to a continual narrowing of the slope of the curve. Moving onto the Fed Funds rate, we review the current implied probabilities of future rate hikes. Lastly, we cover the current national average CD curve and the most recent information from Bankrate.com. Play Download Download
August 8, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the 2Q 2017 results of the community bank benchmark group. Overall, returns have increased during the 2Q lead by an increase in net interest margin and an improvement in net overhead. However, the upward trend in the level of cash-type deposits has begun to level out which could result in an increase in cost of funds if depositors appetite turn more toward time deposits. As for the balance sheet, loan growth continues to outpace asset growth resulting in higher loan to asset ratios. Lastly, the benchmark’s S&B Total Risk Index median score of was little changed over the past year. This indicates little change in the overall risk for the benchmark group. Play Download Download
Aaugust 1, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, covers the Fed statement from last week’s FOMC meeting. While the Fed did not raise rates their mentioning of implementing the balance sheet normalization program “relatively soon” likely points to a September start point especially given the 2Q 2017 GDP coming in at 2.6% for the advance estimate. Play Download Download
July 2017
July 25, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the Housing Market Index which came in at 64 down from its June reading of 66 and below consensus of 68. Furthermore, Jamie reviews the housing permits and starts for June which both showed month-over-month improvements. However, the 2Q2017 totals are below that of the 1Q2017. Lastly, the Leading Economic Index is reviewed noting the continued upward trend in the year-over-year changes. Play Download Download
July 18, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews several releases from last week including the Small Business Optimism Index, Producer Price Index, Business Inflation Expectations Index, CPI and Retail Sales. Overall, last week's releases resulted in a reduction in the GDPNow forecast to 2.4%. Play Download Download
July 7, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the June 2017 Employment Situation report. This month we had 222 thousand jobs created but a much larger influx into the labor force which resulted in an increase in the unemployment rate of 0.1% to 4.4%. Additionally, average hourly earnings increased 2.5% y/y coming in below consensus. Play Download Download
June 2017
June 27, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the May 2017 Existing-Homes sales and the New Residential Sales releases. Play Download Download
June 20, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the FOMC Statement from their June 13th - 14th Fed meeting and shares about the fed's process of normalizing its balance sheet. Play Download Download
June 13, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the expectations of the June 13th - 14th Fed meeting and the May 2017 ISM index for manufacturing and non-manufacturing. Play Download Download
June 6, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the May 2017 Jobs report. Play Download Download
May 2017
May 30, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the second estimate of the 1Q 2017 GDP which was revised to 1.2% from the advance estimate of 0.7%. Additionally, Jamie comments on the May 26th GDPNow which is forecasting a 3.7% GDP for the 2Q 2017. Play Download Download
May 23, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia along with the business conditions survey put out by the Chicago Fed. Additionally, Jamie reviews the Index of Leading Economic Indicators and month over month movements in retail sales. Play Download Download
May 16, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the concept and calculation of the marginal cost of deposits. The marginal cost of deposits is an important concept as it helps you to determine the most cost-effective way to fund asset growth. Play Download Download
May 9, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the 1Q2017 results of the National Community Bank benchmark of banks with assets between $100 million and $5 billion. Play Download Download
May 2, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the 1Q2017 Advance Estimate GDP release and covers both the positive and negative aspects of the 1Q GDP results. Play Download Download
April 2017
April 25, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the 2016 Seifried & Brew Top 15th Percentile Banks release. Jamie explains how these banks made it onto the list and delves into some of the key statistics of the top 15th percentile group compared to those banks that are not on the list. Congratulations to all the banks that have made it onto the list! Play Download Download
April 18, 2017 Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst of Seifried & Brew LLC, reviews the FRB of Philadelphia’s January 2017 Coincident and Leading index maps, both pointing to continued growth but at a decreasing rate of change. Additionally, Jamie covers the Atlanta Fed’s survey of business inflation expectations, the CPI release and the release of retail sales. Overall, these releases point to lower than expected inflation and retail sales. As such, the GDPNow was revised down to a projected growth rate of 0.5% for the 1Q2017. Play Download Download
April 11, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the Employment Situation Report, the 3rd estimate of the 4Q 2016 GDP and the most recent GDPNow release. Play Download Download
April 4, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the importance of being informed about deposit rates and outflows as well as alternative funding interest rates. Play Download Download
March 2017
March 28, 2017 Jamie Sumner reviews the importance of understanding and aligning your ALM model assumptions with the current interest rate environment. Play NA Download
March 21, 2017 Jamie Sumner reviews the FOMC's Projections from their March 2017 meeting. Play Download Download
March 14, 2017 Jamie Sumner reviews the February Employment Situation Report. Play Download Download
March 7, 2017 Jamie Sumner reviews the Second Estimate of the 4Q 2016 GDP. Play Download Download
Fedruary 2017
Feb. 28, 2017 Jamie Sumner reviews the housing market releases for January 2017. Play Download Download
Feb. 21, 2017 Jamie Sumner highlights the changes in the Community Bank Benchmark’s Total Risk Index for the 4Q 2016 and covers some positive economic releases from last week. Play Download Download
Feb. 14, 2017 Jamie Sumner reviews the 4Q 2016 performance of the community bank benchmark group. Play Download Download
Feb. 7, 2017 Jamie Sumner covers the December 2016 State Coincident Map and the Leading Index Map released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Additionally, Jamie briefly comments on the January Jobs report. Play Download Download
January 2017
Jan. 31, 2017 Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews the advance estimate of the 4Q 2016 GDP. Play Download Download
Jan. 23, 2017 This week Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews average deposit rates and the beginning of the baby boomers needing to take mandatory withdrawals from their tax-sheltered accounts. This may prove to be an opportunity for community banks to service this sector of our population over the next several years. Play Download
Jan. 17, 2017 Jamie Sumner, Chief Analyst, reviews Retail Sales, Business Inventories and Consumer Sentiment. Play Download
Jan. 9, 2017 Happy New Year! Jamie reviews the LMCI as well as the Philadelphia Fed's Leading Index. Play Download
December 2016
Dec. 19, 2016 Kyle and Jamie walk through the FOMC materials released last week and would like to wish everyone a safe and enjoyable holiday. Play Download
Dec. 12, 2016 Kyle shares the ISM Semiannual Forecast and CME Group information that indicate future sentiment. Play Download
Dec. 05, 2016 Jamie and Kyle present two graphs and a chart showing the significant shift in the Treasury and Municipal bond markets. Play Download
November 2016
Nov. 28, 2016 Jamie and Kyle share last weeks strong consumer sentiment results and the newly released Second Estimate GDP. Play Download

Nov. 21, 2016 This week Kyle shares some Nielsen data that indicates which geographies are expecting growth in household income. Play Download
Nov. 14, 2016 With fresh 3Q2016 results, Kyle shares two slides that detail the rapid loan growth at community banks and how these loans are funded. Play Download
Nov. 07, 2016 Kyle details last weeks FOMC statement, the LMCI and the likelihood of a December rate hike. Play Download
October 2016
Oct. 31, 2016 Jamie and Kyle take a lighter look at the FOMC decision and share a San Francisco Fed game that lets you adjust short term rates to keep the economy on track. Play Download
Oct. 24, 2016 Kyle focuses on comments made by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President, James Bullard, especially his thoughts on matching Fed Funds rate utilizing the Taylor Rule. Play Download
Oct. 17, 2016 There has not been much talk with respect to capacity utilization, but this week Kyle shares some insight on why the indicator is not indicating a strong expansion. Play Download
Oct. 11, 2016 Kyle comments on the continually negative results of the Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index. Play Download
Oct. 3, 2016 This week Kyle directs viewers to the FDIC's Summary of Deposits website which received its annual update this past Friday. Play Download
September 2016
Sept. 26, 2016 Jamie and Kyle take a lighter look at the FOMC decision and share a San Francisco Fed game that lets you adjust short term rates to keep the economy on track. Play Download

Sept. 19, 2016 Jamie and Kyle share rate hike probability charts and review what recent economic data could mean during the upcoming FOMC meeting. Play Download
Sept. 12, 2016 This week Kyle reviews voting FOMC member Lael Brainard's recent speech on the five components of the "new normal." Play Download
Sept. 6, 2016 This week Jamie and Kyle look at the new employment data, including the LMCI. They consider how it will play into the FOMC's next meeting. Play Download
August 2016
Aug. 29, 2016 After Janet Yellen's comments at Jackson Hole, Kyle shares some key leading indicators to help monitor the likelihood of a rate hike. Play Download

Aug. 22, 2016 Jamie joins Kyle to continue part 2 of our series about the many ways that S&B analyzes community banks. This week we review competitor analysis by going over a sample Performance Risk Essentials with Competitor Watch. Play Download
Aug. 15, 2016 This week Kyle takes a brief look at an actual S&B Snapshot Report for a Sample Bank. This begins our several part series summarizing the many ways that S&B analyzes community banks. Play Download
Aug. 8, 2016 Kyle returns to share trends in loan quality and some of the newly available second quarter 2016 banking benchmark data. Play Download

Aug. 1, 2016 Jamie breaks down last week's GDP results. Play Not Available
July 2016
July 25, 2016 Kyle takes a look at the national housing market by reviewing home sales trends. Play Download
July 18, 2016 Kyle shares his recent experience working with the Google AdWords team to improve the S&B site's web presence and how community banks can benefit from such a service. Play Download
July 11, 2016 Jamie and Kyle present key metrics of employment and what they could mean for a future rate hike. Play Download
July 5, 2016 This week Kyle shares the current Treasury yield curve and discusses flight to quality in the bond market. He also shares some recent examples of communities effecting change. Play Download
June 2016
June 27, 2016 J.C. Brew, Senior Municipal Bond Analyst shares insight on our rating process by reviewing the financial status of the City of Chicago based on 2014 fiscal year end CAFR. Play Download
June 20, 2016 Jamie and Kyle comment on last week's FOMC meeting and where the market sees rate hike probabilities. Play Download
June 13, 2016 This week Kyle shares a global perspective on interest rate movements over the past year. Play Download
June 6, 2016 This week Jamie and Kyle present the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's newest maps. They also comment on the concerning trend in LMCI. Play Download



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