Dr. Ed’s
Economic
Indicators

U.S. COINCIDENT INDEX

Release Date: Monthly
Release Coverage: Prior Month's Data
Released By: The Conference Board
Official Release (weekly): http://www.conference-board.org/

The composite index of coincident indicators, or U.S. coincident index, is a measure of current economic conditions. This indicator is calculated using four economic data series. The series are then averaged for smoothness and the volatility of each is then equalized using a predetermined standardization factor (which The Conference Board updates once a year). Because some of the values of the components have to be estimated for the original release of the data, the numbers must be revised later when the real values are known.

The four components used in the Index are:

  • • Employees on Non-Agricultural Payrolls
  • • Personal Income, Less Transfer Payments
  • • Index of Industrial Production
  • • Manufacturing and Trade Sales

WHAT DR. ED SAYS:

The composite index of coincident indicators is widely used by all kinds of investors to judge the economy's current position in the business cycle. The index is often used also as a confirmation tool in conjunction with the Composite Index of Leading Indicators. Knowing where we are in the current business cycle is advantageous to both banks and their business partners/clients.

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