Weekly
Briefings

Video Briefings

HEAR WHAT THE S&B TEAM HAS TO SAY

Listen in as our analysts discuss an array of topics that may be affecting your institution, including recent market movements and industry-wide commentary. These briefings can serve as educational tools for both boards and management.

Watch the Latest Briefing

March 12, 2020 —Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the recent market moves and the apparent panic in the market.

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RECENT BRIEFINGS

March 06, 2020

March 06, 2020 —Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the employment situation report and comments on the current market turmoil. Overall, there were 273,000 jobs created in February, which came in higher than estimates while the unemployment rate at 3.5%. The market continues to sell off, and the treasury yield continues the path to zero. (Note the TIPS yields have already breached zero.) While the Fed made an emergency 50 bps cut this week, they are expected to follow that up with an additional cut at their meeting this month. The implied probabilities are at 55% for a 25 bp cut and 45% for a 50 bp cut. If you are headed to the ICBA Live conference next week, stop by booth #244 and say hi!
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March 02, 2020

March 02, 2020 —Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the impact of the coronavirus and the prospect of where rates will go. Overall, rates are expected to continue their downward momentum over the next week. With the 10-year UST nearing 1%, the question of refi advantage becomes a significant headwind to bank yield on earning assets, and ultimately, net interest margin.
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February 14, 2020

February 14, 2020 —In this briefing, Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the most recent FOMC statement along with the Advance Estimate of 4Q GDP with the rates of inflation, state unemployment, and the December state coincident index released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Overall, the U.S. economy remains solid, while inflation was lower than expected. Listen in as we review these economic indicators.
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January 31, 2019

January 31, 2020 —In this briefing, Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the most recent FOMC statement along with the Advance Estimate of 4Q GDP with the rates of inflation, state unemployment, and the December state coincident index released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Overall, the U.S. economy remains solid, while inflation was lower than expected. Listen in as we review these economic indicators.
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January 22, 2019

January 22, 2020 —In this briefing, Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews various forecasts for 2020 GDP, including the Fed, IMP and the Conference Board. All the forecasts have a slowdown in the U.S. GDP growth projected for 2020. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow index currently projects a 1.8% 4th quarter GDP. The BEA will release the Advance Estimate of the 4Q GDP later next week. Lastly, Jamie discusses the recent downward trend in the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectations and the impact on interest rates.
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December 12, 2019

December 12, 2019 —In this briefing, Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the December 11th Fed Statement and projections. Additionally, Jamie covers the 2nd release of the 3Q GDP and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow index. The GDPNow index currently projects a 2% 4th quarter GDP. Lastly, Jamie discusses the recent increase in the Fed’s balances sheet and its implication on interest rates.
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November 20, 2019

November 20, 2019 —In this briefing, Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the performance of the community bank benchmark group for the 3Q 2019. Overall, the median ROAA remains above 1% for the entire group. However, the Mutual segment’s ROAA came in at 0.66% for the 3Q. The median net interest margin increased 2 bps to 3.84%. However, it is anticipated that margin compression could occur on a broad perspective in 2020. As for the median S&B Total Risk Index score, it has come down slightly.
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October 10, 2019

October 10, 2019 —In this briefing, Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index, both of which are continuing their move to lower levels. Furthermore, Jamie discusses the employment situation report for September which pointed to lower job creation and slower growth on wages. Lastly, the PPI and CPI releases are reviewed, both of which continue to point to lower inflation and introduces the S&B Sentiment Index.
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September 26, 2019

September 26, 2019 —This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the third estimate of the 2Q 2019 GDP growth rate and compares our current expansionary period to the prior three expansionary periods. Additional, Jamie covers inflation, the Fed projections table, and the dot plot. To end the briefing, Jamie relays his expectation as to where rates are headed.
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